In our enthusiasm for emerging technologies, we often lose sight of the real stories we are trying to tell. Most of us have seen the movie Terminator, with the protagonists jumping through time to prevent the creation of an advanced AI called "Skynet." Experts and nonexperts alike often worry that our pursuit of AI will lead to a Skynet. However, this is the wrong way to think about applying innovation to solving real-world problems.
Understanding the MacGuffin
To apply a term popular in cinema, SkyNet is a MacGuffin. In movie plots, a MacGuffin drives the story forward by motivating the characters but in itself holds little narrative importance. It's what everyone in the movie chases. Still, it could just as easily be a magical toaster without changing the plot's progress.
Yes, we have things in the real world that have the same role as MacGuffins. Emerging technologies are our ultimate examples—or perhaps we should call them "TechGuffins." As technologists and investors, we become obsessed with these MacGuffins, while the actual story—the problems we're trying to solve—often gets lost in the hype cycle.
Neal Stephenson's "Diamond Age" is my favorite example. His "Young Lady's Primer," which has inspired a generation of edtech developers and innovators, is also a classic MacGuffin. The exciting part of the book is not the gadget but how we think about and approach lifelong education.
The Problem with TechGuffins
There's no doubt that Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Extended Reality (XR) are technologies that can transform our lives and, like other MacGuffins, are powerful motivators in our story. Still, they should be seen as secondary players in our main story. Here's my advice: Never start a project by asking, "How can AI improve X." Instead, ask, "We haven't been able to effectively solve this problem; could AI be the piece we are missing?" This shift in mindset is critical. Pursuing MacGuffins and not the problems leads to destructive hype cycles that hinder progress and dampen enthusiasm for the underlying technologies. We're on at least the third historical "revolution" in extended reality technologies in four decades because we've always let the MacGuffin be the main story. The Metaverse is a great MacGuffin, but it's hardly a star.
The problem lies in how you construct the story—not the technology. Throughout my career, spanning the DoD, DARPA, the Department of Education, and various philanthropies, I've seen too many startups and major companies fixate on the technology du jour. The solutions that work usually start with the problem and work backward.
The Pitfalls of MacGuffin-Focused Thinking
When we focus solely on the MacGuffin, we set ourselves up for failure. We oversimplify complex issues and ignore the lessons of past efforts. We ignore and oversimplify human factors, failing to fully grasp the problems we aim to solve. We overstate the MacGuffin's potential impact, leading to those all-too-familiar hype cycles followed by spectacular crashes and disillusionment, which results in stunting progress rather than accelerating solutions.
A Better Approach
Focus on the problems first, then the solutions. Embrace complexity and understand that solving difficult human problems requires multiple approaches and strategies. Do your homework on past successes and failures; commit to iterative design, testing, and validation. Avoid the MacGuffin archetypes of silver bullets and set reasonable expectations and goals.
Above all, remember: the human is at the center of the design. Human factors, effectiveness, safety, and ethics are the true protagonists in your story, not the MacGuffin.
Conclusion: Rewriting the Narrative
Stop obsessing over the MacGuffin and focus on the actual story: impact, innovation, and problem-solving. In the end, it's not about technology—it's about the impact. Let's challenge ourselves to always begin by analyzing the problem, considering the human element, and viewing technology as a tool rather than the star of the story. Now…back to developing my neuralizer!
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